TV: Emmy Predictions

Welp, it's the Emmys tonight. I'll be doing live (in all its West Coast tape-delayed glory) blogging all throughout the pre-show (which, seriously, no foolin', features Kermit the Frog and Miss Piggy as red carpet interviewers -- how can you miss that??) and the awards ceremony, which, considering how awful it was the last time Garry Shandling hosted, should be sheer pain. Thank goodness for TiVo -- I can fast forward through all the dead bits to get straight to what matters: bitching about idiots.

And of course I couldn't go into a major awards ceremony without posting my own predictions. I'll pick from the top ten categories only, since, although I could probably make an educated guess about the directing and writing categories, you people would care even less than what I'm already going to focus on.

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Comedy Series
My Prediction: Sex and the City
Which does not make me happy. As I've often said, with Sex and the City, HBO finally made a show so bad that no amount of gratuitous nudity could get me to watch. But it just ended its run this year, so there's going to be even more of an unseemly orgy over this lame, lame show than there has been in previous years.

Should Win: Arrested Development, walking away. That's out of the nominated shows. Of any show on TV, I'd give the slight edge to Scrubs. But Scrubs was once again totally overlooked in the major categories this year, so fat chance of the best comedy on TV ever getting an Emmy.

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Lead Actor in a Comedy
My Prediction: I'm gonna go against the consensus and pick Tony Shalhoub for Monk. I think the odds-makers are picking John Ritter for the sympathy win, but after watching Dave Foley on Dinner for Five last week, I now have to disagree. He told a story about going to the Emmys after Phil Hartman died. Hartman had been nominated for Supporting Actor for NewsRadio, and he still lost to David Hyde Pierce. After the show, a reporter asked Dave how he felt about the result. "Well," he said, "I don't know what else Phil can do to win one of these things."

Should Win: Monk had an off-year, which doesn't really leave anyone in this category that I'd like to win. Zach Braff should've been nominated for Scrubs, and Jason Bateman should've been nominated for Arrested Development, and of those two, I'd give Bateman the win.

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Lead Actress in a Comedy
My Prediction: Sarah Jessica frickin' Parker. I'm so sick of her. I though I'd be done with her once this show was over, but now she's in those goddam Gap commercials with Lenny Kravitz, that air about eighteen times an hour. Begone, witch!

Should Win: Jessica Walters, Arrested Development. Again, not nominated. Of the nominees, I'd take Jane Kaczmarek for Malcolm in the Middle, a show I haven't watched much for the last couple years, but she's always so damn hysterical on it.

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Supporting Actress in a Comedy
My Prediction: Cynthia goddam Nixon for Sex in the City
Should Win: Megan Mullally, Will & Grace. Hey, I picked someone who's actually nominated! The show's gone way downhill, and she's already had her wins, but she's still the best thing about an often very funny show. My mom sure hates her, though.

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Supporting Actor in a Comedy
My Prediction: Brad Garrett, Everybody Loves Raymond.
Should Win: Of just the Raymond cast, Garrett isn't even most deserving. Give it to Peter Boyle, already. But the one who really should win is Jeffrey Tambor, again from Arrested Development. And he's nominated, so that should help his chances.

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Drama Series
My Prediction: The Sopranos.

Should Win: The Sopranos. I don't even get HBO anymore, but I still know it's the best show on TV. But it's never won this category. The West Wing sucked so bad this year, maybe the Emmy voters will finally come to their senses and stop giving the award to that show.

Let's look at the other nominees in this category for just a moment. CSI? It's okay, but come on. 24? The West Wing? Both way past their prime. Jesus, 24 was a joke this last year, and West Wing not much better. And Joan of Arcadia? Now, I love that show, but even I would hesitate at saying it's one of the five best on TV. Then again... what the hell else is there? Oh, yeah, there's only the best show on non-premium TV: where in the hell is The Shield? Seriously, no Shield? You have got to be shitting me. This is the category where I really have to think, do the Emmy voters really suck that much? Or does TV in general just suck that much? Or both?

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Lead Actor in a Drama
My Prediction: James Gandolfini.

Should Win: Gandolfini, but only because Michael Chiklis wasn't nominated for The Shield. And even then, it'd be close.

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Lead Actress in a Drama
My Prediction: Edie Falco.

Should Win: CCH Pounder, from The Shield. Guess what? Not nominated. Which is almost more of a crime than Chiklis being overlooked. Because at least he won the Emmy in the first season. Pounder has never even been nominated, and she's just amazing. But of the nominees: Falco.

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Supporting Actress in a Drama
My Prediction: Drea de Matteo, for The Sopranos. (And P.S., enjoy the Emmys this year, cause, like your new costar on Joey, Matt LeBlanc, you'll never be nominated again.)

Should Win: Probably her, but again: no HBO. I'd like to say Catherine Dent of The Shield, but by all accounts de Matteo just kicked ass this season. I'll tell you what, though: I am goddam sick of Stockard Channing being nominated in this category. You're not a Supporting Actress when you appear in three episodes a year; you're a Guest Star. But, hey, they're The West Wing, they can do whatever the hell they want.

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Supporting Actor in a Drama
My Prediction: Steve Buscemi, The Sopranos.

Should Win: It should be Walt Goggins ("Shane") and Jay Karnes ("Dutch") going head-to-head on this one, with Karnes squeaking out the win. Both of them had incredible, jaw-dropping story-arcs this season, and gave performances to match. But again, The Shield can kiss Emmy's fat ass, and to hell with all that amazing acting and brilliant writing and revolutionary TV. We want to nominate 87 people from The West Wing! Bitches. Of the nominees, I'd like Buscemi to take it, as a small, small consolation for being overlooked for an Oscar for Ghost World a couple years back.