Saturday, September 15, 2007

2007 Emmy Predictions

Even though I may be unable to liveblog the actual ceremony tomorrow, I can still make some fearless predictions regarding what the dumbasses who give out Emmys are going to do this year. First prediction: Ryan Seacrest is going to be an awful host. (Still, better than Whoopi.) Second prediction: there are going to be some terrible and just plain wrong choices made.

Here are my terrible choices. If I'm doing this correctly, and that's certainly no guarantee, there are a whopping 28 categories to choose from. That seems like a lot. Oh well. Here we go.

Best Series, Drama
Boston Legal
Grey's Anatomy
The Sopranos

There are a few powerhouses I really don't want to pick against in any category this year. The Sopranos is one of them. And looking at the other nominees, that's a pretty damn safe choice. Only House really even deserves to be in the same category. I mean, I love Heroes, but come on. If you're going in that direction, why not Lost, which followed up a shaky start with its best season yet?

Best Series, Comedy
The Office
30 Rock
Two And A Half Men
Ugly Betty

Some tough choices here. I think Entourage's time has passed, but I've been wrong about that kind of thing before. Ugly Betty won the Golden Globe this year, but I don't see them repeating here. And Two and a Half Men? Please. I think The Office edges out 30 Rock.

Best Actor, Drama
James Spader, Boston Legal
Hugh Laurie, House
Denis Leary, Rescue Me
James Gandolfini, The Sopranos
Kiefer Sutherland, 24

I'm not picking against The Sopranos. Gandolfini wins. Really, just so long as it's not Spader or Kiefer, I'll be happy.

Best Actress, Drama
Sally Field, Brothers & Sisters
Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer
Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: Special Victims Unit
Patricia Arquette, Medium
Minnie Driver, The Riches
Edie Falco, The Sopranos

Much tougher pick. Sally Field is much beloved by people who hand out awards, Kyra Sedgwick won the Globe this year, and Edie Falco is part of the Sopranos juggernaut. Which means they'll probably do something horrible and give it to Mariska Hargitay or Patricia Arquette (both of which, unbelievably, have already won Emmys for their shows. I'll keep saying it until the Television Academy listens: if you're nominating Mariska Hargitay for an acting award, you ain't looking hard enough). I'll go with Falco, but I'm not as confident as with the Gandolfini pick.

Best Actor, Comedy
Ricky Gervais, Extras
Tony Shalhoub, Monk
Steve Carell, The Office
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Charlie Sheen, Two And A Half Men

Here's where we find out if Baldwin's phone message tirade against his daughter worked against him during the voting. Without that, I'd say he's a slamdunk to win. With it... I don't know, that damn Tony Shalhoub might win again. I'll pick Baldwin.

Best Actress, Comedy
Felicity Huffman, Desperate Housewives
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, The New Adventures Of Old Christine
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
America Ferrera, Ugly Betty
Mary-Louise Parker, Weeds

Very, very, very tough category. I think Tina Fey's the only one not in the running, not because she isn't brilliant, but because I think it's not a flashy, award-attracting role. Felicity won in 2005. Julia won in 2006. America won the 2007 Golden Globe. But I have to go with the buzz and say Mary-Louise Parker (who's won Globes in 2004 and 2006 and an Emmy in 2004) wins. She's the hottest of the bunch right now.

Best Supporting Actor, Drama
William Shatner, Boston Legal
T.R. Knight, Grey's Anatomy
Masi Oka, Heroes
Michael Emerson, Lost
Terry O'Quinn, Lost
Michael Imperioli, The Sopranos

Pretty tough call again. I'm calling it right now: Grey's Anatomy wins nothing. So Knight's out. It's too soon for Masi Oka. Shatner -- please, god, no. It was funny for a while, people, but come on. I do not want to live in a world where William Shatner has three Emmys. It's down to Lost vs. The Sopranos, and while I've heard Imperioli's work wasn't as good as it's been in the past, I think he takes it.

Best Supporting Actress, Drama
Rachel Griffiths, Brothers & Sisters
Katherine Heigl, Grey's Anatomy
Chandra Wilson, Grey's Anatomy
Sandra Oh, Grey's Anatomy
Aida Turturro, The Sopranos
Lorraine Bracco, The Sopranos

Here's the category where I think I have to pick against The Sopranos. I know Turturro won't win, and I don't think Bracco will win, either. Again, haven't watched the last season, but I understand her role was much reduced from what it's been in previous seasons. So it's three Grey's actresses, and while I think Oh has an outside shot, I'm standing firm on my belief that that show will win nothing. Rachel Griffiths never won for Six Feet Under, but I have a hunch she'll win here.

Best Supporting Actor, Comedy
Kevin Dillon, Entourage
Jeremy Piven, Entourage
Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother
Rainn Wilson, The Office
Jon Cryer, Two And A Half Men

If it were me, I'd split the award between Rainn Wilson and NPH. Piven got his Emmy last year, and I don't think he'll repeat. Dillon won't outshine Piven, so he won't win, either. And Cryer was never in the race. It's a coin flip, literally: heads for Rainn, tails for Neil. And... it's heads. I'm going with Rainn. (But I hope Neil wins. Go Barney!)

Best Supporting Actress, Comedy
Jaime Pressly, My Name Is Earl
Jenna Fischer, The Office
Holland Taylor, Two And A Half Men
Conchata Ferrell, Two And A Half Men
Vanessa Williams, Ugly Betty
Elizabeth Perkins, Weeds

I think I have to go with Perkins, against my sentimental favorite, Jenna Fischer. Though Jaime Pressly does have a solid chance.

Best Directing For A Comedy Series
30 Rock, "The Breakup"
Entourage, "One Day In The Valley"
Extras, "Episode 1 - Orlando Bloom"
Scrubs, "My Musical"
The Office, "Gay Witch Hunt"
Ugly Betty, "Pilot"

Here's where it really becomes guesswork. I'll go with The Office, just because that episode was truly hilarious.

Best Directing For A Drama Series
Battlestar Galactica, "Exodus, Part 2"
Boston Legal, "Son of the Defender"
Friday Night Lights, "Pilot"
Heroes, "Genesis"
Lost, "Through the Looking Glass"
Studio 60 On The Sunset Strip, "Pilot"
The Sopranos, "Kennedy And Heidi"

Nice! I didn't even realize Battlestar Galactica picked up a big nomination like this! That's a welcome bit of recognition. Too bad they're up against The Sopranos, which has only one episode to choose from, so I'll choose that one. Even though that Lost episode was spectacular.

Best Directing For A Miniseries, Movie Or A Dramatic Special
Broken Trail
Bury My Heart At Wounded Knee
Jane Eyre
Prime Suspect: The Final Act
Tsunami, The Aftermath

Like The Sopranos, I think Broken Trail is another juggernaut this year. I'll pick it over Helen Mirren's final go in Prime Suspect.

Best Writing For A Comedy Series
30 Rock, "Tracy Does Conan"
30 Rock, "Jack-Tor"
Extras, "Daniel Radcliffe"
The Office, "Gay Witch Hunt"
The Office, "The Negotiation"

Wow. Two episodes each from my two favorite sitcoms... and yet, if I were voting, I might go for Extras. I didn't watch a lot of that show, but that Daniel Radcliffe episode was amazing. Still... I think I'll pick "Gay Witch Hunt" again.

Best Writing For A Drama Series
Battlestar Galactica, "Occupation/Precipice"
Lost, "Through The Looking Glass"
The Sopranos, "Kennedy And Heidi"
The Sopranos, "The Second Coming"
The Sopranos, "Made In America"

Another nod for BSG! Cool. And The Sopranos can only hurt their own chances by splitting votes between three episodes. You know what? I'm gonna pick Lost as a dark horse.

Best Writing For A Miniseries, Movie Or A Dramatic Special
Broken Trail
Bury My Heart At Wounded Knee
Jane Eyre
Prime Suspect: The Final Act
The Starter Wife

Broken Trail.

Best Writing For A Variety, Music Or Comedy Program
Late Night With Conan O'Brien
Late Show With David Letterman
Real Time With Bill Maher
The Colbert Report
The Daily Show With Jon Stewart

And here we come to a show which I think has the potential to be a juggernaut, and an almost equal potential to get shut out. I'm talking about The Colbert Report. My feeling is that this is its year. It has fully emerged from the shadow of The Daily Show, it's gotten more press and more raves, and Colbert has moved up to the A-list. But... I could be wrong. I'm picking Colbert, but if The Daily Show wins, I would not be at all surprised.

Best Reality-Competition Program
The Amazing Race
American Idol
Dancing With The Stars
Project Runway
Top Chef

The Amazing Race. Don't they always win?

Best Variety, Music or Comedy Series
The Colbert Report
The Daily Show With Jon Stewart
Late Night With Conan O'Brien
Late Show With David Letterman
Real Time With Bill Maher

Again, going with Colbert; half expecting The Daily Show.

Best Individual Performance In A Variety Or Music Program
79th Annual Academy Awards -- Ellen DeGeneres, Host
Late Show With David Letterman -- David Letterman, Host
The Colbert Report -- Stephen Colbert, Host
The Daily Show With Jon Stewart -- Jon Stewart, Host
Tony Bennett: An American Classic -- Tony Bennett, Performer

This is tough. Remember last year's ceremony, when Colbert made such a (funny) fuss about being beaten in this category by Barry Manilow? Could very easily happen again with Tony Bennett. I'll pick Colbert, but frankly, I don't really expect him to win. I just can't bring myself to pick Tony.

Best Directing For A Variety, Music Or Comedy Program
American Idol
Saturday Night Live
The Colbert Report
The Daily Show With Jon Stewart
Tony Bennett: An American Classic

Same thing here! Jeez. Okay, in this category, I will go with Tony. Hope I don't regret it.

Best Variety, Music Or Comedy Special
A Tribute To James Taylor
Lewis Black: Red, White & Screwed
The Comedy Central Roast of William Shatner
The Kennedy Center Honors: A National Celebration Of The Performing Arts
Tony Bennett: An American Classic
Wanda Sykes: Sick And Tired

I'll go with Tony again! Though I'd really like to see Lewis Black win.

Best Made for Television Movie
Bury My Heart At Wounded Knee
Inside The Twin Towers
The Ron Clark Story
Why I Wore Lipstick To My Mastectomy

Bury My Heart has a lot of positive word about it, so I'll pick it.

Best Miniseries
Broken Trail
Prime Suspect: The Final Act
The Starter Wife

Broken Trail.

Lead Actor, Miniseries or Movie
Robert Duvall, Broken Trail
Tom Selleck, Jesse Stone: Sea Change
Jim Broadbent, Longford
William H. Macy, Nightmares & Dreamscapes: From The Stories Of Stephen King
Matthew Perry, The Ron Clark Story

Duvall, for Broken Trail. Macy is a solid challenger, normally, but not for some Stephen King thing.

Lead Actress, Miniseries or Movie
Queen Latifah, Life Support
Helen Mirren, Prime Suspect: The Final Act
Mary-Louise Parker, The Robber Bride
Debra Messing, The Starter Wife
Gena Rowlands, What If God Were The Sun

Helen Mirren, in a mortal lock as strong as her Oscar win for The Queen.

Supporting Actor, Miniseries or Movie
Thomas Haden Church, Broken Trail
August Schellenberg, Bury My Heart At Wounded Knee
Aidan Quinn, Bury My Heart At Wounded Knee
Edward Asner, The Christmas Card
Joe Mantegna, The Starter Wife

I'm feeling a little shaky on this one, but I'll stick with Broken Trail and pick Church.

Supporting Actress, Miniseries or Movie
Greta Scacchi, Broken Trail
Anna Paquin, Bury My Heart At Wounded Knee
Samantha Morton, Longford
Judy Davis, The Starter Wife
Toni Collette, Tsunami

Judy Davis is always a strong pick, and Broken Trail is the juggernaut. But I'm going crazy on this one, and going with upset pick Anna Paquin to sneak in and win it, much like her Oscar win at age 11.

And there you go! You know I'll have something to say about the Emmys tomorrow, even if I don't liveblog the ceremony, so be sure to stop by and check in. At the very least, you can see how horribly my picks are doing.

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