Oscar Predictions

In the comments to my last post, Off-Coloratura asked if I was going to post my official Oscar predictions before the ceremony on Sunday. Well, I don't have anything better to post about today, so I guess so.

About a month ago, I posted my preliminary, gut instinct predictions on the heels of the announcement of the nominees. I said at the time that there were very few picks I was confident about, and indeed I have flip-flopped on several of them. For the sake of completism (as in, making a complete fool out of myself), here are my really truly for sure this time picks for every category.

I'll run down the awards I didn't mention last time first, most of which I don't care about and am only taking wild guesses at.

ANIMATED FEATURE
Wallace and Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit seems like a shoo-in to me.

ART DIRECTION
It's hard to determine just what exactly makes for a good Art Direction nominee. After all, this is a category with Good Night, and Good Luck. going up against King Kong. I think I'll go with the ape (and no, I don't mean George Clooney).

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Rodrigo Prieto, Brokeback Mountain.

COSTUME DESIGN
These kinds of awards often go to the weirdest of the nominees, so I'll take Charlie and the Chocolate Factory here.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
God Sleeps in Rwanda. The sole basis of my pick is that it has both "God" and "Rwanda" in the title.

FILM EDITING
This is a tough one. But Brokeback isn't nominated here, which makes it easier for me to go with Munich.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Tsotsi, which I pick only because Ebert & Roeper talked about it last week, and it looks pretty darn good.

MAKEUP
Star Wars: Episode III Revenge of the Sith. Just a guess.

MUSIC (SCORE)
I think John Williams cancels himself out, for being nominated for both Munich and Memoirs of a Geisha, so I'll go with Brokeback.

MUSIC (SONG)
Still very weird only three songs were nominated. Of those, I have to go with Dolly Parton for "Travelin' Thru" from Transamerica.

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
I suspect it will be between The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello and 9, because of what little I've seen and read, they seem the most visually interesting and inspired. I'll take 9, on the theory that most Oscar voters stopped reading the title of the other nominee after the third word. "Just put me down for 9, that's easy to remember."

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
I pick Our Time Is Up on the basis that it's the only nominee with a recognizable Hollywood face starring in it (sure, it's only Kevin Pollak, but that's enough to put it over the top, I think).

SOUND EDITING
I'll take King Kong again. The Academy will feel sorry that they didn't give Peter Jackson any nominations in big categories (even though he probably didn't deserve them), so I think the monkey wins in the minor categories. (And by monkey, I do mean Peter Jackson.)

SOUND MIXING
Trying to figure out the difference between Sound Mixing and Sound Editing makes me not care so much I want to quit this post and go play some Minesweeper instead. So I won't try to figure it out, and just guess that Kong probably won't win for both sound categories, so I'll pick, on a wild hunch, Walk the Line instead.

VISUAL EFFECTS
Star Wars is not even nominated? Weird. Gotta be King Kong.

And now we're back to categories I picked winners for in my earlier post. Some of my picks have changed.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
I picked Murderball before, on the rationalization that the most popular documentary usually loses (usually doesn't even get nominated, actually). I now think this year is going to be a rare exception: I'll take March of the Penguins.

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
My theory has always been that the Screenplay categories are consolation prizes for the best movies that don't have a hope in hell of winning one of the six majors (Picture, Acting, Directing). But then I went against that logic, and picked Brokeback. I stand by it.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Much as I want it to be The Squid and the Whale, I picked Syriana before, and I also stand by that pick.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
It was the surest lock before, and it still is: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Rachel Weisz won the Golden Globe for The Constant Gardener, but I didn't think she would repeat her win at the Oscars. I now do. Sorry, Michelle Williams.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
My main theory, when I made my original picks, was that the Academy wasn't quite as liberal and gay-friendly as you might at first think; that, in fact, its ranks are pretty well packed with ancient, conservative, clueless homophobes. I picked Joaquin Phoenix, believing that Philip Seymour Hoffman was a little too Capote-y for the majority's liking. But he sure seems unstoppable now. I pick Hoffman.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Wishful thinking made me pick Paul Giamatti, but, even though he finally got the nomination he deserved, I don't think it's his year to win. Unbelievably, it is George Clooney's year. George Clooney: Oscar winner. Weird. But likely.

DIRECTING
It was Ang Lee before, and it's Ang Lee now.

BEST PICTURE
Brokeback Mountain doesn't seem to have lost any momentum, does it? While Crash has had as many vocal and emotional detractors as it has had defenders. This is still a very tough pick for me. I know it's going to be one of those two. And I truly believe that not all of Hollywood is quite so comfortable with the gays as much of the rest of the country believes. I picked Crash before, and I want to stay with that pick because A) I think my reasoning is sound and valid, and B) I would look like an awesome genius if it did pull off the upset and win. Yes, I said "upset," which means that I believe Brokeback is the film to beat. In the end, I lack the courage to stand by my previous prediction. I pick the obvious choice, Brokeback. Dang it!

So there you have it, my choices in every Oscar category. I'll be back here at 4PM Pacific time on Sunday, starting my legendary liveblogging an hour early to catch the horrors of the red carpet pre-show. Please stop by to see how my picks are doing, and also to see which starlets I drool over in between spewing petty, smart-assed insults at all that displeases me (which, as you probably know by now, is an awful lot). It'll be fun!