MOVIES: Academy Awards Nominees

The nominees for the 78th Academy Awards were announced this morning, and on first glance, there doesn't seem to be anything tremendously surprising, at least not after the Golden Globes. Here's a rundown of my picks and thoughts in the top categories.

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
CAPOTE
CRASH
GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
MUNICH

When talking about the nominees for the Golden Globes, I said that I thought the Globes would want to give Best Picture to Brokeback Mountain to assert their hipness superiority over the Oscars, which are perceived as being far less likely to award a gay-themed film. I was right about the Globes, and I think the perception of the Oscars is probably right. Despite its eight nominations, I don't think Brokeback will win. I pick Crash, the movie that makes you feel good for confronting racial prejudices, not sexuality prejudices.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Philip Seymour Hoffman - CAPOTE
Terrence Howard - HUSTLE & FLOW
Heath Ledger - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
Joaquin Phoenix - WALK THE LINE
David Strathairn - GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.

Hoffman won the Golden Globe, so he has to be considered the front-runner. But I still don't think he's a shoo-in. I may be completely wrong in all of this, but I feel like this is not going to be the Year of the Gays, as it was the Year of the African-Americans when Denzel Washington and Halle Berry won. The Oscars love to appear progressive, without actually being progressive. And I think awarding all these gay-friendly films and performances is too much for them. I think Joaquin Phoenix has the best shot at this -- he also won the Golden Globe, but in Comedy or Musical (neither of which describe the film he was in), not Drama.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
George Clooney - SYRIANA
Matt Dillon - CRASH
Paul Giamatti - CINDERELLA MAN
Jake Gyllenhaal - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
William Hurt - A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE

Why is Ledger a Lead Actor and Gyllenhaal Supporting? Aren't they co-leads? Whatever. It's like Samuel L. Jackson being nominated for Supporting Actor for Pulp Fiction, and John Travolta for Lead Actor, even though Jackson had more lines than Travolta. You nominate the actors where you think they have the best shot. That said, I don't think Gyllenhaal has a shot. I think it's between Clooney (who won the Golden Globe) and Giamatti (whom Clooney said in his acceptance speech he thought was going to win). I'm leaning slightly toward Giamatti, because he's been screwed over by the Oscars several times now (no nomination for American Splendor or Sideways??), and the Oscars tend to make up for things like that.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Judi Dench - MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS
Felicity Huffman - TRANSAMERICA
Keira Knightley - PRIDE & PREJUDICE
Charlize Theron - NORTH COUNTRY
Reese Witherspoon - WALK THE LINE

Reese Witherspoon in a walk, just like at the Globes. Felicity Huffman did win the Globe for Drama, but she doesn't have a chance here.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams - JUNEBUG
Catherine Keener - CAPOTE
Frances McDormand - NORTH COUNTRY
Rachel Weisz - THE CONSTANT GARDENER
Michelle Williams - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN

Rachel Weisz was a surprise win (to me, anyway) at the Globes, and I don't think she'll repeat it here. If not her, though, who? This category often goes to the youngest and least experienced of the nominees, which could mean Amy Adams or Michelle Williams. Junebug just seems too obscure, despite Roger Ebert's campaign for Adams, so I'll go with Williams, in one of the consolation awards I think Brokeback will win instead of Best Picture.

ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
CAPOTE
CRASH
GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
MUNICH

I think this will be another consolation award for Brokeback. But it won't be only as a consolation; I think no matter what, Ang Lee wins.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
DARWIN'S NIGHTMARE
ENRON: THE SMARTEST GUYS IN THE ROOM
MARCH OF THE PENGUINS
MURDERBALL
STREET FIGHT

This one is hard to pick. The documentary committee harbors a legendary resentment toward films which gain popular success and widespread critical acclaim -- Grizzly Man, for example, was the most buzzworthy documentary of last year, but it didn't even make the short list of possible nominees, let alone the final five. Darwin's Nightmare and Street Fight are the two nominees here I've never heard of, which would usually make them the front-runners. But I'm going to play a hunch and pick Murderball.

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES
(ORIGINAL SONG)
"In the Deep" - CRASH
"It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" - HUSTLE & FLOW
"Travelin' Thru" - TRANSAMERICA

I mention this category only because of how unusual it is that only three songs are nominated. Weak year for music in the movies, I guess. I don't know who wrote or sang these songs, so your guess is as good as mine, probably better.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
CAPOTE
THE CONSTANT GARDENER
A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE
MUNICH

The Screenplay categories, I've often said, are the ultimate consolation prizes for the best films that don't have a hope in hell of winning a bigger Oscar, especially Best Picture. Not always, but often. Despite all I've said, I still think Brokeback has a shot at Best Picture (probably a very good one), but it's hard to think it won't win here. A History of Violence would be my second guess.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
CRASH
GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
MATCH POINT
THE SQUID AND THE WHALE
SYRIANA

Another tough pick. I picked Crash for Best Picture, but if I'm wrong, this would be its consolation prize. The Squid and the Whale would be another good pick; it was much praised and loved, but it got shut out of the main categories. That said, I'm picking Syriana.

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Very few picks I'm confident about at this point. The only ones I'm really sure about are Reese Witherspoon and Ang Lee for Director. As we get closer to Oscar night, I'll reevaluate some choices and pick from the full list of nominees, just in time for your office Oscar pool.