Oscars 2005 -- My Picks

The Oscars are on Sunday, and, as with the Golden Globes, and the 2004 Emmys before that, I will be liveblogging the event. In preparation for it, and as a service to all you people playing in your local Oscar pools this weekend, I will now give you my 100% foolproof guaranteed winners for every category.*

I previously picked the top six categories. I'll include them here as a reminder. I did change my mind on one of those early picks; I thought Portman was strong, coming off the Golden Globes, but I think it's Blanchett with the edge now. My picks are in boldface.

• ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
  
  Don Cheadle - HOTEL RWANDA
  Johnny Depp - FINDING NEVERLAND
  Leonardo DiCaprio - THE AVIATOR
  Clint Eastwood - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
  Jamie Foxx - RAY
  
  
• ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
  
  Alan Alda - THE AVIATOR
  Thomas Haden Church - SIDEWAYS
  Jamie Foxx - COLLATERAL
  Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
  Clive Owen - CLOSER
  
  
• ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
  
  Annette Bening - BEING JULIA
  Catalina Sandino Moreno - MARIA FULL OF GRACE
  Imelda Staunton - VERA DRAKE
  Hilary Swank - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
  Kate Winslet - ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND
  
  
• ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
  
  Cate Blanchett - THE AVIATOR
  Laura Linney - KINSEY
  Virginia Madsen - SIDEWAYS
  Sophie Okonedo - HOTEL RWANDA
  Natalie Portman - CLOSER
  
  
• ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
  
  THE INCREDIBLES
  SHARK TALE
  SHREK 2
  
  
• ART DIRECTION
  
  THE AVIATOR
  FINDING NEVERLAND
  LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
  THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
  A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT
  
  I still don't think The Aviator is going to win Best Picture (though I'm still only 51% sure on that), but I think it's going to be strong in pretty much every other category it's nominated in. Like this one.
  
  
• CINEMATOGRAPHY
  
  THE AVIATOR
  HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS
  THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
  THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
  A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT
  
  And this one.
  
  
• COSTUME DESIGN
  
  THE AVIATOR
  FINDING NEVERLAND
  LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
  RAY
  TROY
  
  They usually give this one to big, historical epics, don't they?
  
  
• DIRECTING
  
  THE AVIATOR
  MILLION DOLLAR BABY
  RAY
  SIDEWAYS
  VERA DRAKE
  
  I really believe Scorsese will finally get his Directing Oscar, but again, I'm not strongly sure. Could very easily go to Eastwood, even though he's already got one.
  
  
• DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
  
  BORN INTO BROTHELS
  THE STORY OF THE WEEPING CAMEL
  SUPER SIZE ME
  TUPAC: RESURRECTION
  TWIST OF FAITH
  
  Tupac? No. Here's my impression of the average Academy voter: "Who-pac?" Super Size Me? Too popular. The most popular docs almost always lose. I'm picking Brothels for the sole reason that I saw a clip of it on Ebert & Roeper last week, and it looks appropriately depressing enough to get the Oscar.
  
  
• DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
  
  AUTISM IS A WORLD
  THE CHILDREN OF LENINGRADSKY
  HARDWOOD
  MIGHTY TIMES: THE CHILDREN'S MARCH
  SISTER ROSE'S PASSION
  
  A story about Birmingham, Alabama, from previously-nominated directors. Seems like a solid choice.
  
  
• FILM EDITING
  
  THE AVIATOR
  COLLATERAL
  FINDING NEVERLAND
  MILLION DOLLAR BABY
  RAY
  
  
• FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
  
  AS IT IS IN HEAVEN
  THE CHORUS
  DOWNFALL
  THE SEA INSIDE
  YESTERDAY
  
  I'm going with the only one I've heard of.
  
  
• MAKEUP
  
  LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
  THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
  THE SEA INSIDE
  
  It's gotta win something, right?
  
  
• MUSIC (SCORE)
  
  FINDING NEVERLAND
  HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
  LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
  THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
  THE VILLAGE
  
  These are some pretty weak nominees. But it's hard to pick against John Williams.
  
  
• MUSIC (SONG)
  
  "Accidentally In Love" - SHREK 2
  "Al Otro Lado Del Río" - THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
  "Believe" - THE POLAR EXPRESS
  "Learn To Be Lonely" - THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
  "Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)" - THE CHORUS
  
  Wow, no Disney song! That leaves it wide open. I'm gonna have to say Phantom because, while none of the voters will have heard this new song, they've all probably seen and loved the original musical.
  
  
• BEST PICTURE
  
  THE AVIATOR
  FINDING NEVERLAND
  MILLION DOLLAR BABY
  RAY
  SIDEWAYS
  
  Tough, tough call.
  
  
• SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
  
  BIRTHDAY BOY
  GOPHER BROKE
  GUARD DOG
  LORENZO
  RYAN
  
  It looks like a Pixar film (even though I think it has nothing to do with Pixar), which should give it the edge.
  
  
• SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
  
  EVERYTHING IN THIS COUNTRY MUST
  LITTLE TERRORIST
  7:35 IN THE MORNING
  TWO CARS, ONE NIGHT
  WASP
  
  Just a hunch.
  
  
• SOUND EDITING
  
  THE INCREDIBLES
  THE POLAR EXPRESS
  SPIDER-MAN 2
  
  Big action movies usually win this category.
  
  
• SOUND MIXING
  
  THE AVIATOR
  THE INCREDIBLES
  THE POLAR EXPRESS
  RAY
  SPIDER-MAN 2
  
  Hey, it's also a big action movie, right?
  
  
• VISUAL EFFECTS
  
  HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
  I, ROBOT
  SPIDER-MAN 2
  
  
• WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
  
  BEFORE SUNSET
  FINDING NEVERLAND
  MILLION DOLLAR BABY
  THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
  SIDEWAYS
  
  In my experience, the writing categories are often sympathy awards for the best films that don't have a shot at the main categories. Which here would be Sideways.
  
  
• WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
  
  THE AVIATOR
  ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND
  HOTEL RWANDA
  THE INCREDIBLES
  VERA DRAKE
  
  Same reasoning as above.

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*Not a guarantee.